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Crypto struggled last week, forced down below many psychological price levels: BTC from $72,840 to almost $61,500 (~-$2,000) (-12%); ETH fell below $2,000 with minimal bounces; and then as of today we are seeing a little bounce — BTC continuing to settle down, ETH is up (+3.4%/~$1,666) leading the other two coins (XRP/SOL +1.3% and BNB/ADA ~+1%). The bounce is not indicative of a reversal trend in price.
Major contributors: record ETF redemptions of about $3 million (which was a large driver of BTC’s decrease), the public revelation of Saylor’s first sell of BTC in four years (even though it was 6,500+, psychologically spooking market participants), continued strong economic releases (resulting in a higher for longer interest rate environment) in relation to AI stock, and general fear as per the Fear/Greed indicator at 11 this past week (lowest mark was in 2020).
Several factors will counterbalance the above negative factors: 61% of actual BTC supply has been dormant for over a year; corporate treasury purchases continue to outweigh ETF redemptions; there is a large number of strong hands that are still actively holding BTC; a relatively small amount of weak hands have now been flushed out of the market.
Going forward, the remaining key economic releases this week are: CPI on 6/10 — if CPI comes in as expected/below, then we will find relief in the lower range of ($60,000) price levels, and if CPI turns out hot, then $60K will be a continued pressure point and we can expect more market volatility. Other economic releases this week: ADP on 6/9; ECB on 6/11; PPI on 6/12; OPEC on 6/12; SpaceX IPO on 6/11/17; and Russell IPO on 6/26.
Based on market conditions: the most significant price floor is 60K BTC. Be light on positions leading up to CPI; DCA into strong quality names; and no margin/leverage.
Overall trend has started to rebound so confirmation from higher prices will yield on going affirmation that a trend has begun.
Neither a recommendation for trade or investment — please DYOR.
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