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About a month ago, on May 4th, I called the final leg of this bull run and pinpointed May 25th as the top at 84.5k.
Fast forward to May 10th, we hit 82,850. Then the drop began on May 26th from 78,200, and now we're sitting at a local low of 66.2k.
The screenshot here captures a key debate: Old-school crypto OGs (sharks and dogs) vs. the new ETF and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) playbook. Right now, ETFs are pulling back hard, and Strategy's selling has triggered FUD across the board.
Another take from that screenshot: ZEC is a wild volatility play, swinging violently, while ETH is bottomless and the worst performer. As of now, ZEC is bucking the trend at 630, ETH is at 1850, and the ETH/BTC ratio is 0.0278.
My continued reasoning:
1. This market is heavily manipulated. The OGs are masters of psychological warfare. All the calls for 40k or 30k BTC today might just be a trap. Expect strong buying support in the 50-54k zone. Don't forget CZ's verbal promises.
2. Bitmain, Bitdeer, and other Chinese-linked whales only turned their attention back to BTC after dumping their ZEC mining rigs. Now it's about who picks up ZEC. The idea that ZEC replaces BTC is flawed because its privacy focus makes it an easy target for Western capital using legal crackdowns. That said, don't short ZEC now. You can't beat Bitmain unless the whole market boycotts, and retail boycotts just fuel pumps. There's always someone who doesn't believe.
3. If US stocks fall, crypto might not crash as hard, but the downside could still be significant.
4. Summer months June, July, and August will be tough. Some altcoins might turn into volatile plays. After the World Cup, expect a local bottom for whales to accumulate.
5. Post-midterm elections, the US-Japan interest rate differential, and the Israel-US vs. Middle East oil producers vs. Iran-Russia dynamic are three key factors. These will likely push oil prices higher.
6. The dawn for crypto could be September to November. But US stocks ...
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